Enough

For whatever reason, I haven't been able to log into Blogger all day. I've had enough -- I'm moving this blog over to WordPress as soon as I have the spare time.

Meanwhile, you can check out a post I was going to cross-post here: my analysis of the "FairTax" movement currently creeping its way into influence in the Republican primary.

Labels: Blogger sux, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 6:40 PM 0 comments

  Postcard

Cool and cloudy in Seattle this morning, which means all is right with the world (I understand it was sweltering just a few days ago). I'll pick up with real analysis next week, but in the meantime you can drop by The Right's Field, where I've posted a few items on the presidential race.

Have a great weekend.

Labels: meta, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 12:14 PM 1 comments

  Please Hold

Busy morning at the day job: I'll be back this afternoon. Meanwhile, I've got a new post up at The Right's Field, where there's lots of other good stuff worth reading, like Matt and Todd on Giuliani's ridiculous "12 Commitments" pledge.

See you later.

Labels: The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 9:51 AM 0 comments

  The Republican Crack-Up Factor

At The Right's Field, Matt Browner Hamlin highlights Matt Stoller's comments on the "Republican crack-up" factor in the 2008 presidential cycle. I recommend giving both posts a read. Stoller argues that, in the era before blogs, Republican candidates could get away with saying "different things to different audiences," which enabled them to manage the difficult task of locking up the reactionary vote without alienating moderates. Now, however, their ugliness and hypocrisy will be on full display.

Hamlin, for his part, points out how both left and right blogs are targeting the Republican primary field. The GOP frontrunners are likely to face as much damaging scrutiny from conservative blogs (such as these) as from the liberal blogosphere. Thus, in Hamlin's words, the potential for a "blog-driven crackup."

I think Stoller and Hamlin make good points. Bloggers will be able to heighten the contradictions within a party that is run by a narrow ideological movement but depends upon its ability to appeal to moderate voters for electoral success. Ironically, this is the very same narrative conservatives would like to apply to the Democrats, but the proof is in the pudding: while there's disagreement over the war, the Democrats suffer nothing like the demoralization and confusion currently running through Republican ranks.

At the same time, and as much as I like to give the blogosphere credit, the Republican dilemma has to do with a number of factors besides bloggers. Primarily, as this blog has analyzed, it has to do with the crisis caused in conservatism by the movement's own experience of power, which has forced conservatives either to re-examine their assumptions about government and the nature of their coalition, or to retreat further into self-delusion. This, in turn, has raised the stakes for intra-party squabbles.

Much of this does trace back to the same problem with the iron law of American political history: a major party must be a broad coalition in order to survive. As the GOP has narrowed itself ideologically, it has relied increasingly on smoke and mirrors to maintain the illusion of inclusivity. But now, confronted with the bright light of the blogosphere and the hard physics of actual governance, the magic is beginning to fade.

Labels: conservatives, Matt Stoller, Republicans, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 9:59 AM 1 comments

  "Back in '82..."

Following on my post below about the Hamlin and Schaller pieces, I think I've hit on what Giuliani is all about. He's the GOP's Uncle Rico candidate. He is the Republican party looking back at itself and thinking, I could have been great. He's the candidate of re-living the glory - or the imaginary glory - and pretending the rest of it never happened.

"How much you wanna make a bet I could throw a terrorist over them mountains?"

(Cross-posted - combined with the previous post - at the Daily Gotham.)

Labels: 2008, Presidential election, Rudy Giuliani, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 10:19 AM 0 comments

  Elephants: "Forget...Forrrgeeeeet..."

Good post by Matt Browner Hamlin at The Right's Field about this excellent Tom Schaller piece in the Baltimore Sun. Both Hamlin and Schaller note the astounding dearth of references to the Iraq war by presidential candidates at CPAC. Schaller suspects that the omissions may be rooted in the same factor that has so far made Rudy Giuliani the frontrunner:

Here's my theory for why Mr. Giuliani is ascendant: It's not so much because he triggers memories of the horrific day in the fall of 2001 when the terrorists attacked, but that he reminds Republicans of the fall of 2002.

That autumn, the Republicans were at their zenith. In September, President Bush had given a moving speech on the first anniversary of 9/11. The next month, the Republican-led Congress passed the Iraq war resolution. A month later, Republicans won the midterm elections. Mr. Bush was popular, Democrats were scrambling for cover, and Republicans controlled the entire national government for the first time in a half-century.

Then came the war in Iraq, which Mr. Bush insisted was the central front in the global war on terror. By coupling Iraq with the broader war against terror, "The Decider" eventually turned the GOP's advantage on terrorism into a liability.

Mr. Giuliani is presenting himself as "The De-Coupler" - the candidate who allows Republicans to magically transport themselves back in time to a pre-Iraq era, when their terrorism credentials could still be wielded as a lethal, single-edged sword.

This is, of course, pure fantasy on the part of Giuliani and his supporters - but as I've said many times before, fantasy is Giuliani's strong suit. The entire Republican party seems ready to slip back into happy illusions about the days when Americans believed that the GOP was the party of national security and they're hoping the general public is willing to come along for the ride - Iraq be damned. As Hamlin puts it:

Not only are Republicans forced to run away from Bush, they have to deny that the last five years have taken place and whitewash the results of their failures of leadership in the war against Islamic terrorists.

Et viola! If you want a Grand Unifying Theory of This Week's Posts at A&S, it's this: Rudy Giuliani commands the Republican field because he is a champion in the war of perception. Schaller makes the same observation:

Pretending Iraq never happened is tough. It was abundantly clear at last week’s conference, however, that the conservatives’ capacity for self-deluding, avoidant behavior may prove to be Mr. Giuliani’s greatest asset.

It's a depressing scene, like watching a balding and pudgy 40-year-old man squeeze into his high school letter jacket. But there you have it.

Incidently, Schaller mentions a strange thing Rudy said at CPAC (strange given the audience, that is):

He suggested that, much as America's former enemies from World War II are now allies, and the former communist states are rapidly becoming our friends too, the goal of the war on terrorism should be to win the hearts and minds of the terrorists who hate us.

"We have to stop them, and then we have to persuade them," Mr. Giuliani said.

Remember how in 2004 all the conservatives were insisting that it wasn't enough for John Kerry to say we'd stop the terrorists - he had to say we would "kill" the terrorists. Imagine if he'd told people that "we have to pursuade them"! We'd still be hearing about it!

It really is all about perception, I guess.

Labels: 2008, conservatives, CPAC, Presidential election, Rudy Giuliani, The Right's Field, Tom Schaller

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 8:53 AM 0 comments

  Hagel Confused About the Dialectic

Good point at the Right's Field on Chuck Hagel's fantasy "unity ticket":

I have a tremendously hard time believing that any significant group of Americans will vote for a presidential ticket because they are civil and not because of any ideological reasoning. Civility is a red-herring. A political party devoid of any political ideology is the last thing America needs when you look at the problems that will be facing this country after Bush’s term expires.

There is a real problem with divisiveness in American politics, but the answer to that isn't some sort of mindless difference-splitting or knee-jerk pseudo-centrism. The divisiveness problem is a specific one - it's the result of conservative and Republican political tactics and strategies. Likewise, the various crises facing America right now are largely the product of conservative Republican government.

The solution to these problems isn't some vacuous "unity." It's progressive politics.

Labels: Chuck Hagel, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 4:35 PM 1 comments

  As the Republican World Turns

Two bits of campaign news from The Right's Field:

Family Research Council President Tony Perkins says that if Giuliani gets the GOP nod, "pro-family" Americans will sit on their hands:

"If by some chance Giuliani were to gain the Republican nomination it would set up a very similar scenario that we had last November. A unenthusiastic Republican base which will suppress turnout and set up a Democratic victory.”

Giuliani has had it surprisingly easy from the religious right so far. Dobson hasn't said much, prefering to hate on McCain. Pat Robertson actually digs him. Sure, he's not racking up the Right to Life endorsements, but neither has he inspired much intense evangelical opposition yet. But once he's in, the honeymoon comes to an end. Which may help explain why he's taking so long to actually announce.

And in other news, Huckabee suggests that if he doesn't do well in the Iowa Straw Poll this August, he's gonzo.

Labels: 2008, Mike Huckabee, Presidential election, Rudy Giuliani, The Right's Field

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 12:19 PM 0 comments

  New on the Blogroll

The Right's Field is an outstanding group blog covering the Republican presidential contenders.

Undercover Blue does thoughtful commentary on political mindsets in America.

And five before chaos reports on war, Christofascism, Blaxploitation, and Spaghetti Westerns. Plus a Jethro Tull clip. Beat that!

Labels: blogroll, five before chaos, meta, The Right's Field, Undercover Blue

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 1:11 PM 0 comments