Kids All Right; Republicans, Not So Much

This is bad, bad news for the GOP:

A Democracy Corps poll from the Washington firm of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner suggests voters ages 18 to 29 have undergone a striking political evolution in recent years.

Young Americans have become so profoundly alienated from Republican ideals on issues including the war in Iraq, global warming, same-sex marriage and illegal immigration that their defections suggest a political setback that could haunt Republicans "for many generations to come," the poll said.

The startling collapse of GOP support among young voters is reflected in the poll's findings that show two-thirds of young voters surveyed believe Democrats do a better job than Republicans of representing their views - even on issues Republicans once owned, such as terrorism and taxes.

(h/t: Donklephant)

Note which Republicans duck the trend. One is Rudy Giuliani -- but his own efforts to identify with the hard right on war and terror issues will cost him the youth vote as the campaign gains more attention.

The other:

[Arnold] Schwarzenegger, by supporting issues "once owned by the Democrats," such as the environment and education, has lured many young voters to support him and "closely identify themselves as Schwarzenegger Republicans," Mendelsohn said.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: in Sacramento, the Republicans have a model for how to resuscitate their party in blue/purple states and on a national level. But Schwarzenegger's politics are precisely the kind that conservative activists have spent 40 years trying to purge from the GOP.

Labels: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republicans

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 10:39 AM 0 comments

  Arnold the Apostate

More evidence that Republicans are refusing to learn from the success of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Charlie Crist: Robert Novak wonders if Arnie can even be considered a Republican anymore. The imediate subject is Schwarzenegger's unwillingness to act as "midwife" for a deal that would loosen term limits in exchange for a Republican-friendly redistricting plan (I don't know the details, but my first reaction is that any Democrat who'd agree to that should be tarred and feathered). Novak goes on to observe that Arnold just hasn't been the same good Republican soldier since 2005:

The Republican Party's condition in the nation's most populous state is desperate, with Schwarzenegger its only visible asset. Yet a redistricting that would help the GOP immeasurably is considered outside the frame of reference for the Republican governor, who remembers the issue as one of the ballot propositions he lost in the disastrous election of 2005. His current national priority is preaching the menace of global warming, and his state mission is practicing the "post-partisanship" of governing across party lines....

The turning point came when Schwarzenegger went head-to-head against the state's powerful labor unions, and all of his ballot initiatives were defeated in the 2005 elections. That brought many changes. Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's nationally renowned Republican political consultant, who guided him in victory, in the 2003 recall election, and in defeat, with the 2005 ballot propositions, was gone. Liberal Democrat Susan Kennedy became his chief of staff. His Democratic wife, Maria Shriver, gained influence. Peace was made with labor. The governor broke his pledge of no tax increases by proposing $4.5 billion in "fees" to finance his health plan.

One can understand California conservatives' sense of betrayal. But if Schwarzenegger is the state GOP's only asset, then the logical conclusion is that the California Republican Party is nothing but a liability to a politician who wants to be successful statewide. No wonder he felt compelled to leave it behind, then. The question is whether the party's establishment will, going forward, prefer a rump conservative opposition, or a more dynamic Schwarzennegerian-style progressive Republicanism. I don't follow California politics closely, so I wouldn't know -- but then it doesn't seem too tough to guess.

Labels: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California, Republicans, Robert Novak

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 11:55 AM 0 comments

  Right on the Road to Nowhere?

You may already have seen Paul Krugman's piece in yesterday's Times - delicious title: "Emerging Republican Minority." Krugman refers to a recent Pew poll showing that the Democrats have opened a wide lead in party identification. But he also points out that other findings in the poll indicate a serious problem developing for a party religiously devoted to an anti-government philosophy:

Consider, for example, the question of whether the government should provide fewer services in order to cut spending, or provide more services even if this requires higher spending. According to the American National Election Studies, in 1994, the year the Republicans began their 12-year control of Congress, those who favored smaller government had the edge, by 36 to 27. By 2004, however, those in favor of bigger government had a 43-to-20 lead.

And public opinion seems to have taken a particularly strong turn in favor of universal health care. Gallup reports that 69 percent of the public believes that “it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage,” up from 59 percent in 2000.

There is simply no evidence that the American people reject the notion of activist government. In fact, the data show that, after years of conservative rhetoric and disastrous conservative government, Americans want competent activist government more than ever.

Krugman ends by pointing out something that some on the left have noticed, but which few other people - on the right or in the media - seem to have emphasized: the fact that there's a model for Republican resurgence staring everyone in the face, but the conservatives refuse to look at it.

Many Republicans still imagine that what their party needs is a return to the conservative legacy of Ronald Reagan. It will probably take quite a while in the political wilderness before they take on board the message of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s comeback in California — which is that what they really need is a return to the moderate legacy of Dwight Eisenhower.

The project of the modern conservative movement has been to destroy the political imperatives of the Eisenhower era. Schwarzenegger, turning back to that legacy, also turned his back on the entire conservative movement. He now represents everything the movement is designed to destroy. As long as the conservative movement remains at the wheel of the GOP - and there's no reason to believe it'll surrender control any time soon - the party will be headed in the wrong direction, away from the road to resurrection.

Labels: Arnold Schwarzenegger, conservatives, Paul Krugman

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 11:43 AM 0 comments