alien & sedition.
Thursday, July 19, 2007
  The Path to a Brokered Convention?

Gary Andres explains how it isn't just Democrats who are looking at a real possibility of winding up in a brokered convention next year. Republicans may find that none of their candidates will be able to take a majority of delegates into St. Paul, though for different reasons.

The wild cards in the GOP process are the "winner take all" primaries, used by Republicans in 20 states. Andres observes that Giuliani is well positioned to work around poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire by winning key early WTA states like Florida, California, New York, and New Jersey. Still, other frontrunners may be able to counter:
But Fred Thompson and Mr. Romney may also do well in other early WTA states like South Carolina, (47 delegates), Georgia (72 delegates), Missouri (52 delegates) and Tennessee (55 delegates), which all take place on or before February 5. And Mr. Romney's current lead in New Hampshire and Iowa could bode well for generating momentum going into the WTA primaries. This all has the makings of a topsy-turvy end-game.
A brokered GOP convention would be a fascinating exercise in testing the relative strengths of different parts of the conservative coalition. Is it likely? Maybe not. But it's perhaps a stronger possibility this cycle than it has been in quite a while.

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I've been thinking for a while that the Dems might go into the convention without a nominee, but damn, if it happened to the Reeps too?

The Hunter-Kucinich debates should be interesting.
Hunter-Kucinich debates. I'd pay to watch that.

Beat only by the Ron Paul- Mike Gravel debates.
Not gonna happen. I've read this prediction every 4 years, but it never happens because it ignores the underlying pattern of nomination contests: candidates are sequentially eliminated until it narrows down to one. The only way you could ever have a brokered convention would be if EVERY state voted on the same day, and all delegates were selected proportionately.

The nominees will probably be known on February 5 - by early March at the latest.
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