The GOP Debate: Call Your Broker
Advice for all you traders in political futures, based on first impressions:
Giuliani: Sell. He seriously bungled the abortion questions, and hardly got a chance to talk about how he Totally Ruled on 9/11. There's no reason to think that this won't be a pattern going forward. On the positive side, he didn't totally blow the parts about immigration -- though he didn't get much chance to go into it. Overall, the early reviews are not kind.
McCain: Sell. At least until he figures out how to project passion as opposed to cartoonish, rehearsed rants.
Romney: Hold. He was overly-slick and overly-calculated, but those are qualities that will work better for him over the long run than they do when compressed into a single debate.
Huckabee: Buy. Suddenly I'm not the only one saying this guy's a star waiting to be noticed. And he obviously was ready to deal with his big weakness, the tax issue. He doesn't have any money or organization, so the debates are certainly going to be his main chances to shine. But he did
shine. He helped himself tonight.
Brownback: Hold. He's firmly in the second tier, but he didn't do anything to hurt his standing with his evangelical base. Especially if he was one of the loons who raised his hand on the evolution question.
Tancredo: Buy. But buy cheap. He didn't come across as crazy -- at least, I don't know, maybe he has an outside chance at a cabinet spot if a Republican wins next year?
Thompson: Hold, if you have any. He's already been in the cabinet, and there's no reason to think he couldn't do it again, I suppose.
Gilmore: Buy. Not much to go on here, but he handled himself well.
Hunter: Don't tell me you bought stock in Duncan Hunter.
Paul: Buy whatever it is he eats for breakfast, and start kicking ass.
Labels: 2008, debates, Presidential election