alien & sedition.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
  The GOP's Primary Quagmire

The race for the Republican presidential nomination is enough to make anyone's head hurt. Here's Josh Marshall returning to the inevitable conclusion that none of 'em can get nominated:
On the Republican side, I think the money numbers are entirely secondary to news from the Giuliani campaign. Rudy still supports public funding of abortions. Apprently we're still supposed to be in that pretend place where we believe that Rudy Giuliani can be the Republican nominee. But let me go out on a limb. Nobody who supports public funding of abortion is going to be the nominee of the Republican party. Say all you want about Rudy's 'leadership uber alles' campaign platform: I'm not buying it. So I don't think Rudy can be the Republican nominee. And I think it's increasingly unlikely that John McCain will be either -- he's becoming a cliche.

So who? Romney? I'd have to say that seems like the most likely scenario at the moment. But only because the other scenarios don't seem possible.
See, that's why I was thinking Romney for a while, too. But he's at three percent in the polls and spiraling fast into self-parody.

So you get Fred Thompson, who seems to be emerging as a conservative favorite but who has no organization and hasn't even really committed to running. The 2004 Clark campaign taught us that someone can be a brilliant candidate on paper but if he doesn't do his homework, he's an also-ran.

There would be an argument for Gingrich here: another conservative hero, but one who has spent the past several years carefully building a national network that he could transform into a presidential campaign. And it just might happen. At the same time, it's just hard to imagine Newt as a candidate.

And maybe all this helps Giuliani. In any normal cycle, no pro-choice, anti-gun candidate could win the Republican nomination. But that assumes there's at least one other solid candidate in the picture. In this case, there might not be. Rudy could win almost by default.

At any rate, he's now backing off his recent statement of support for public funding of abortion, insisting that he never said he'd seek to change the Hyde Amendment. But you have to think the damage has already been done. He's spent the last few months trying to convince conservatives that his aggressive support for freedom of choice was all in the past - another time, another context. But now it's recent. It's like the signs you see at construction sites: "X Days Since Our Last Accident." It was a good run - but now he has to re-set the sign to zero.

Labels: , , ,

Comments: Post a Comment

<< Home

"An obscure but fantastic blog." - Markus Kolic


Critical analysis of the American conservative movement from a progressive perspective. Also some stuff about the Mets.

Email Me

Favorite Posts

I Was a Mole at the Conservative Summit, Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Wars of Perception, Part One
Wars of Perception, Part Two

Conservative Futures
Reading Conservative History


I also post at:

The Daily Gotham
The Albany Project
The Right's Field

Various favorites:

Ben Weyl
Chase Martyn
Cliff Schecter
Crooked Timber
D-Day (David Dayen)
Daily Kos
Ezra Klein
Five Before Chaos
Future Majority
Glenn Greenwald
The Group News Blog
Jon Swift
Lawyers, Guns, and Money
Matt Ortega
Matthew Yglesias
My Thinking Corner
New Democratic Majority
The November Blog
The Osterley Times
A Pedestrian View
The Poor Man Institute
Progressive Historians
Skippy the Bush Kangaroo
Talking Points Memo
Think Progress
The Third Estate
Undercover Blue
Vernon Lee
wAitiNG foR doROthY

Watching the right:

Orcinus (Dave Neiwert)
Rick Perlstein
Right Wing Watch
Sadly, No!

The conservative wonkosphere: (AEI)
The American Scene
Andrew Sullivan
Cato @ Liberty
Contentions (Commentary Magazine)
Crunchy Con (Rod Dreher)
Daniel Larison
Eye on '08 (Soren Dayton)
Jim Henley
Josh Trevino
Mainstream Libertarian
National Review Online
Patrick Ruffini
Ross Douthat
Ryan Sager
The Weekly Standard

New Yorkers:

Amazin' Avenue
Chris Owens
Z. Madison


December 2006

January 2007

February 2007

March 2007

April 2007

May 2007

June 2007

July 2007

August 2007

September 2007

October 2007

November 2008

Powered by Blogger