alien & sedition.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
  The House is Not Safe, but Don't Freak Out

John Gizzi says that the "GOP Can Retake the House in '08." His argument is simply a restatement of two observations - one historical, one statistical. The historical point is that the 1974 "Watergate election" didn't signal a long-term realignment in favor of the Democrats. His statistical point is that, "In 33 districts nationwide, Democrats emerged triumphant with 55% of the vote or less. In 18 of those districts, the margin of victory for the Democrats was less than 52%." (Go to his article to see a list of those potentially vulnerable seats).

We should, of course, believe Gizzi. If we don't clearly understand that a single election can wipe out all the gains we made last November, we're getting dangerously complacent.

On the other hand, his historical comparison is not entirely apt. For one thing, Democrats now have that example from which to learn. But much more important are the underlying trends. The last 25 years of the 20th century were marked by the gradual movement of the South into the Republican column. The 2006 election, however, reflected the gradual solidification of the Northeast for the Democrats. There really isn't much more for the Republicans to win in the South, but districts in the North and West continue to trend our way. Only four of the seats picked up by Democrats in '06 were from majority-Republican districts. Many of the other new seats, meanwhile, represent districts that are trending more Democratic.

Again, none of this is an argument for complacency. But - especially if we can keep developing winning strategies in the West - there's no reason for undue pessimism either.

Labels: , ,

Comments: Post a Comment

<< Home

"An obscure but fantastic blog." - Markus Kolic


Critical analysis of the American conservative movement from a progressive perspective. Also some stuff about the Mets.

Email Me

Favorite Posts

I Was a Mole at the Conservative Summit, Part One
Part Two
Part Three

Wars of Perception, Part One
Wars of Perception, Part Two

Conservative Futures
Reading Conservative History


I also post at:

The Daily Gotham
The Albany Project
The Right's Field

Various favorites:

Ben Weyl
Chase Martyn
Cliff Schecter
Crooked Timber
D-Day (David Dayen)
Daily Kos
Ezra Klein
Five Before Chaos
Future Majority
Glenn Greenwald
The Group News Blog
Jon Swift
Lawyers, Guns, and Money
Matt Ortega
Matthew Yglesias
My Thinking Corner
New Democratic Majority
The November Blog
The Osterley Times
A Pedestrian View
The Poor Man Institute
Progressive Historians
Skippy the Bush Kangaroo
Talking Points Memo
Think Progress
The Third Estate
Undercover Blue
Vernon Lee
wAitiNG foR doROthY

Watching the right:

Orcinus (Dave Neiwert)
Rick Perlstein
Right Wing Watch
Sadly, No!

The conservative wonkosphere: (AEI)
The American Scene
Andrew Sullivan
Cato @ Liberty
Contentions (Commentary Magazine)
Crunchy Con (Rod Dreher)
Daniel Larison
Eye on '08 (Soren Dayton)
Jim Henley
Josh Trevino
Mainstream Libertarian
National Review Online
Patrick Ruffini
Ross Douthat
Ryan Sager
The Weekly Standard

New Yorkers:

Amazin' Avenue
Chris Owens
Z. Madison


December 2006

January 2007

February 2007

March 2007

April 2007

May 2007

June 2007

July 2007

August 2007

September 2007

October 2007

November 2008

Powered by Blogger