How Bush May Save Ahmadinejad

Ali Ansari at the Guardian explains: the Iranian president is politically isolated and increasingly unpopular:

Ahmadinejad was elected on a platform of anti-corruption and financial transparency, and few appreciated how rapidly he was intoxicated with the prerogatives of his office. He very soon forgot the real help he had received in ensuring his election, basking in the belief that God and the people had put him in power. Ahmadinejad soon had a view for all seasons: uranium enrichment. Of course Iran would pursue this, and what's more, sell it on the open market at knockdown rates. As for interest rates, they were far too high for the ordinary borrower, so cut them immediately. And then there was the Holocaust.

None of this might matter so much, if the president had based his rhetorical flourishes on solid policies. But much to everyone's surprise nothing dramatic materialised. Ahmadinejad appeared to follow the dictum of his mentor, Ayatollah Khomeini - "Economics is for donkeys".

The result? Inflation, unemployment, and "ridicule." Even his supporters are dismayed:

Much to their irritation, not only has Ahmadinejad singularly failed to consolidate and extend his political base, the recent municipal elections saw his faction defeated throughout the country. Traditional conservatives and reformists reorganised and hit back, ingeniously using technology to work round the various obstacles placed in front of them. Now, over the past weeks, with biting weather, shortages of heating fuel are further raising the political temperature, while his political opponents point to the burgeoning international crisis for which the globetrotting president seems to have no constructive answer. Talk has turned to impeachment.

Only one thing can save Ahmadinejad's political career now: American belligerence.

One cliched dictum of politics is that you should never get in the way of your enemy when he's trying to commit suicide. And yet, that's what American policy towards Iranian hardliners seems to do again and again.

Labels: Ahmadinejad, Foreign Policy, Iran

  ¶ Posted by Paul Curtis 6:51 PM